Weekend Review: Honest Lessons from a Tough Week in Our Portfolio

Happy Saturday. If you read yesterday's Weekly Recap: Oil, Iran, and the Art of Holding Through Noise, you know I was already being candid about our recent performance. Today, with the markets closed and a bit more distance from the daily noise, I want to go deeper. Not deeper into headlines, but deeper into the uncomfortable question every investor needs to ask periodically: am I doing this right?

Because this week, honestly, I wasn't.

The Scoreboard Doesn't Lie

Our portfolio returned -0.94% for the week. The S&P 500 gained roughly 1.6% over the same period. The MSCI World index, as proxied by the ACWI ETF, posted more modest gains (ACWI actually fell 0.16% on Friday alone, reminding us that the global picture was far less rosy than the U.S. one). That's still a meaningful gap between our book and the domestic benchmark. Only two of our six positions were in the green. If this were a baseball game, we struck out looking while the rest of the league was hitting doubles.

I could make excuses. Geopolitical uncertainty with the Iran strikes, 100% pharmaceutical tariffs, oil above $110, inflation forecasts coming in at 4.2% from global forecasters. All real headwinds. But the broad U.S. market found a way to rally anyway, and our book didn't participate. That's on me, not the headlines.

Why Did U.S. Stocks Rally Despite the Noise?

Before diving into our positions, it's worth understanding the week's central puzzle: how did U.S. equities push higher when the headlines were so ugly?

Three forces converged:

First, the labor market showed resilience. The March ADP report showed 62,000 private-sector jobs added. modest, but better than economists expected. That was enough to push back against the growing "recession odds climb on Wall Street" narrative that dominated early in the week. Recession fears haven't disappeared (more on that below), but the jobs data gave bulls just enough ammunition.

Second, the market decided Iran was contained. Two U.S. pilots were shot down and dramatically rescued, oil prices jumped, and Trump threatened more strikes against a major oil-producing nation. Normally this kind of escalation triggers sustained risk-off behavior. Instead, U.S. equities absorbed the shock. The VIX (a measure of expected market volatility, often called the "fear gauge") fell 2.73% on Friday to 23.87. still elevated compared to calm periods, but moving in the right direction. When the VIX falls while geopolitical news gets worse, it usually means the market has already priced in the bad news and views the conflict as contained rather than systemic.

Third, the U.S. decoupled from the rest of the world. This is the most important signal from Friday's data. The S&P 500 edged up 0.11% and the Nasdaq rose 0.18%, while European markets were broadly negative: the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.70%, Germany's DAX dropped 0.56%, and France's CAC 40 lost 0.24%. In Asia, Taiwan's TAIEX plunged 1.82%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.70%, and Shanghai dropped 1.00%. Japan's Nikkei (+1.26%) and South Korea's KOSPI (+2.74%) were the exceptions, but the overall global picture was soft. International developed markets, as tracked by the VEA ETF, fell 0.77%, and emerging markets (VWO) dropped 0.72%.

The takeaway: this wasn't a global "risk-on" move. It was a U.S.-specific resilience story, likely driven by relative economic strength and the fact that tariff risks. while real. are perceived as more damaging to trading partners than to the U.S. itself.

What Actually Happened With Our Positions

Let me walk through every active recommendation, because you deserve full transparency.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is sitting at $130.52, down 0.9% from our $131.70 entry. The original thesis was that oil price momentum and geopolitical tensions would lift energy names. And you know what? Oil prices did jump this week on fresh Trump threats against Iran and the dramatic rescue of downed pilots. But COP hasn't responded the way I expected.

Here's an important nuance I missed: while oil is surging, the market is simultaneously digesting headlines like "Why $4 a gallon gas prices won't trigger Fed interest rate hikes. and could lead to cuts." Record petrol and diesel price rises in March are squeezing consumer spending, and that demand destruction narrative is working against energy equities even as the commodity itself rises. Investors appear to be treating the oil spike as a growth headwind rather than an energy-sector tailwind. Our internal review flagged that energy momentum actually broke down this week as risk-on capital rotated elsewhere.

I'm keeping this position on a short leash. If oil prices don't translate into equity gains within the next few trading days, I'll be cutting exposure. Sometimes the thesis is directionally right but the vehicle doesn't cooperate. and sometimes the market is telling you something about demand destruction that the commodity price alone doesn't capture.

Adobe (ADBE) is our quiet performer at $242.92, essentially flat, up 0.13% from entry. In a week where the S&P 500 Information Technology sector gained 0.73% on Friday, Adobe held steady but didn't catch the broader updraft. The AI transformation thesis remains intact, and Adobe's valuation is attractive relative to its historical range. though I want to flag that I'm reviewing the precise forward earnings estimates with our data provider to make sure our valuation work is current. Adobe has historically traded at rich multiples, so any compression from those levels deserves careful context. I'm comfortable here. This is a 12-month position, and we're barely into week two. Patience is the whole strategy.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) was our best performer this week, up 1.33% at one point. But the broader context makes me cautious. Taiwan's main TAIEX index fell 1.82% on Friday. the largest single-day decline among major Asian markets. and the pharma tariff headlines have investors on edge about what sector gets targeted next. A year into Trump's tariff regime, as multiple outlets have noted, the global economy has been reshaped in ways that make semiconductor supply chains a perennial target in trade disputes.

I still believe in TSM's position as the backbone of AI chip manufacturing, but the geographic risk is real. If 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals become a template for other sectors, tech hardware could be next. The 1.82% drop in Taiwan's index on Friday, while our TSM position held up, suggests global investors are already rotating away from Taiwanese exposure.

Ethereum (ETH) is at $2,047.42, down 0.44% from our $2,056.56 entry. Crypto has been quiet this week while traditional markets grabbed all the attention. For a high-risk position with a 3-month horizon, being roughly flat isn't alarming. But I'll be honest: in a week where risk-on sentiment drove U.S. equities higher, you'd expect crypto to participate. It didn't. The correlation thesis (crypto as a risk-on asset) may be weaker than I assumed, especially in an environment where traditional markets are rallying on domestic economic resilience rather than global liquidity expansion. I'm holding but watching closely.

The Uncomfortable Lesson

Here's what I got wrong this week, and it's a pattern worth naming: I was picking specific stories when the market was trading the broad narrative.

The S&P 500 rallied this week on a combination of better-than-expected jobs data, contained geopolitical risk perception, and U.S. economic exceptionalism. That's a broad beta trade. the kind you capture by simply owning the index. not a stock-picker's market.

Meanwhile, I had a portfolio full of idiosyncratic bets, names chosen for specific catalysts, that collectively missed the rally. As I discussed in Interest Rates, Oil Shocks, and Recession Fears: What Your Portfolio Faces in April 2026, the macro environment is genuinely complicated. But complicated doesn't mean you should ignore beta. the basic tendency for stocks to move with the broader market.

I should have had more broad exposure. A simple SPY or QQQ allocation alongside our specific picks would have captured some of that rally. Lesson learned.

The Recession Question Nobody Wants to Ask

One theme I under-weighted this week. and that both the headlines and the bond market are screaming about. is the rising probability of recession.

"Recession odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surface" was one of the week's most important stories. Here's why it matters for our portfolio: 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.31% and 30-year yields fell to 4.89%, both down slightly on Friday. Those moves, small as they are, tell us bond traders see slightly more risk to growth than to inflation in the near term.

This is a subtle but critical cross-current. Stocks rallied. Bonds also bid slightly. Those two signals can coexist in the short run. stocks trading on "the economy isn't falling apart yet" while bonds trade on "but the cracks are deepening." The gas price story reinforces this: record fuel price increases are squeezing consumers, but as one analysis noted, the Fed may interpret that demand destruction as disinflationary. potentially opening the door to rate cuts rather than hikes.

For our portfolio, this means I need to be prepared for a regime change. If the recession narrative gains traction, our cyclical exposure (COP especially) becomes a liability, while quality growth names (ADBE) and potentially bonds become more attractive. I'm adding this to my framework for next week's decisions.

What I'm Changing

Three concrete adjustments for next week:

First, I'm adding broad market exposure. We've been too clever by half with pure stock-picking. Sometimes the smartest trade is the simplest one. I'm looking at adding a core SPY or QQQ position to make sure we don't completely miss the next broad rally. SPY closed Friday at $655.83 (+0.09%) and QQQ at $584.98 (+0.11%). both quietly grinding higher while our picks treaded water.

Second, I'm diversifying by sector. We have zero exposure to financials and healthcare, two of the largest sectors in the S&P 500. Healthcare fell on Friday, partly on the 100% pharmaceutical tariff news, but that creates opportunity once the dust settles. especially if tariff negotiations produce deals rather than permanent barriers. Small-caps also deserve a look: the Russell 2000 gained 0.70% on Friday, outperforming large caps and suggesting some broadening of market participation.

Third, I'm tightening the leash on underperformers. COP gets a few more days to prove itself with oil prices providing a tailwind. If it can't rally on a week when Trump is literally threatening more strikes on a major oil-producing nation. and when record fuel prices are headline news. when exactly will it rally? The demand destruction narrative may be the answer, and if so, that's a thesis-level problem.

The Week's Big Themes, Looking Back

For those building their own investment analysis framework, here's what mattered this week and why:

Iran escalation → oil spike → but equities shrugged. The dramatic rescue of two downed U.S. pilots and Trump's threat of more strikes should have been risk-off catalysts. Instead, the market treated it as priced in. This tells us the consensus view is that the conflict remains limited in scope.

Tariff regime deepening → sector-specific risk. One year into Trump's tariff program, 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals represent a new escalation. The global economy has been meaningfully reshaped, and the question for investors is which sector faces the crosshairs next. Taiwan's 1.82% market drop suggests semiconductor investors are nervous.

Jobs data → cautious optimism, but recession fears linger. The ADP report at 62,000 jobs beat expectations, but the "recession odds climbing" narrative hasn't gone away. Friday's official jobs report will be the next major data point.

U.S. vs. the world → divergence trade. U.S. markets held up while Europe and most of Asia fell. This isn't new, but the magnitude of divergence on a day with major geopolitical headlines is noteworthy. If you were only watching the S&P 500, you'd think the world was calm. It wasn't.

Saturday Morning Takeaway

I started this platform because I believe in being honest about what works and what doesn't. This week, our specific picks didn't work as well as simply owning the index would have. That stings, but it's useful information.

The good news: none of our positions have hit stop-loss levels. None of our core theses are broken. And we're making adjustments based on real data, not emotion.

Next week brings Friday's jobs report, more Iran developments, and likely more tariff noise on pharmaceuticals. I'll be watching whether COP finally responds to the oil price environment (or whether demand destruction wins), whether TSM can hold up against trade war fears, and whether the broad market can sustain this rally into earnings season.

The key question I'll be asking all week: is the market's calm a sign of strength, or complacency? Rising recession odds, $4+ gas, and an expanding military conflict are not the backdrop for complacency. If the jobs report disappoints, the narrative could shift fast.

If you're sitting on your couch reading this, here's my suggestion for the weekend: don't check your portfolio. Check in with the people who matter to you instead. The markets will be there Monday.

What I'm watching most closely next week: Friday's jobs report and whether the market's calm reaction to Iran holds up. or cracks.

This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.