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Education2026-03-197 min

What Our Conviction Scores Actually Mean

Every pick comes with a conviction score from 0 to 1. Here is how we calculate it and what it tells you about our thinking.

Not all picks are created equal

When we flag an opportunity, we always include a conviction score between 0 and 1. A score of 0.85 means something very different from 0.55, and understanding this number helps you decide how much weight to give each pick.

What goes into the score

The AI considers several factors:

  • Valuation gap: How far is the current price from what the data suggests is fair value?
  • Data quality: How many independent data sources confirm this opportunity? One source is weak. Five sources agreeing is strong.
  • Historical patterns: Has the agent seen similar setups before? How did those play out?
  • Risk factors: What could go wrong? High upside with many risk factors gets a lower score than moderate upside with few risks.
  • Macro alignment: Does the broader economic environment support or work against this thesis?

    • How to read it

    Here is a rough guide:

  • 0.80 and above: Strong conviction. Multiple data sources agree, the setup looks solid, and the risk/reward ratio is compelling.
  • 0.60 to 0.79: Moderate conviction. The opportunity looks real but there are meaningful uncertainties.
  • Below 0.60: Lower conviction. The agent sees something interesting but the signal is noisy or the risks are elevated.

    • An important caveat

    A high conviction score does not mean a guaranteed win. It means the available data points strongly in one direction at the time of analysis. Markets are unpredictable. A 0.90 pick can still lose money if unexpected events change the picture.

    That said, over time, higher-conviction picks should outperform lower-conviction ones. That is what we track and measure.

    This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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    This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.